Dangote refinery supplies 20 m litres daily, NMDPRA says

When Farouk Ahmed, CEO of Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority stepped up to the podium on October 10, 2025, he didn’t just recite numbers—he signalled a shift in Nigeria’s fuel story.

The announcement came at the Association of Energy Correspondents of Nigeria annual conferenceLagos, where the regulator’s spokesperson George Ene‑Ita echoed the briefing.

According to Ahmed, the Dangote refinery is now pumping up to 20 million litres of petrol a day, a slice that covers roughly 40 % of the nation’s 50 million‑litre daily demand. "Without a shadow of doubt, the operation of the 650,000‑bpd Dangote refinery has changed the supply dynamics," he told the audience.

Background: Nigeria’s chronic fuel deficit

For decades, Nigeria—Africa’s largest oil producer—relied on imported petroleum motor spirit (PMS) to keep its streets moving. In 2020 the country imported about 72.6 % of its gasoline, a dependence that strained foreign reserves and kept pump prices volatile.

The $20 billion Dangote project, sited in the Lekki Free Zone of Lagos, was conceived as the cornerstone of a home‑grown solution. Designed for 650,000 barrels per day (≈103 million litres), the refinery was slated to slash imports dramatically once fully operational.

Current output and contribution

While the plant’s design capacity remains unachieved, the reported 20 million‑litre daily figure still marks a tangible step forward. The figure translates to about 592.1 million litres supplied in January 2025, according to The Guardian NG, which in turn trimmed Nigeria’s import dependence to 56.3 %.

That contribution, however, has not been constant. Production hit a low in July 2025, when a brief labor dispute trimmed output to roughly 31.5 % of the daily demand, according to the same source.

Operational challenges and setbacks

Conflicting reports illustrate the refinery’s roller‑coaster ride. Business Insider Africa noted that crude purchases fell to under 300,000 barrels per day by early October—more than a 50 % dip from the July peak—citing outages and equipment glitches.

Furthermore, Legit.ng reported a pilot distribution programme started on October 10, allowing 20 selected depot operators to lift roughly 30 million litres each until month‑end, a move intended to smooth out the supply chain while the plant stabilises.

These hiccups underscore a broader issue: Nigeria’s refineries, including the state‑run ones, have historically struggled with feedstock quality and reliable crude supply. In 2024, Dangote still imported close to 20 % of its crude needs from the United States.

Regulatory response and policy measures

Ahmed’s briefing didn’t stop at the numbers. He outlined a three‑pronged regulatory push to cement the gains:

• Licensing standards: Fast‑track approvals for storage depots to curb adulteration and hoarding.
• Surveillance upgrades: Enhanced monitoring of product movements to stem illegal arbitrage and reduce truck‑in‑transit accidents.
• Strategic stockpiling: Operationalising petroleum product reserves in line with the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) of 2021, creating a buffer against future disruptions.

"We need to encourage the biggest refinery to do all it can to shape up for local consumption and supply ramp‑up," Ahmed said, gesturing toward the broader goal of energy security.

Regional export and future outlook

Beyond domestic headlines, Dangote’s output is already spilling over borders. The refinery has begun exporting to Senegal, Togo, Benin and Gabon, expanding Nigeria’s footprint in West and Central African fuel markets.

In early 2025, the United States imported 1.7 million barrels of jet fuel from the plant in a single month, while Saudi Aramco purchased three cargoes totalling 130 million litres. Those figures hint at a nascent export engine that could generate hard currency and bolster the nation’s trade balance.

Looking ahead, industry analysts say the refinery could inch closer to its design capacity if crude supply stabilises and the operational hiccups are resolved. "If Dangote can maintain a steady feedstock line and clear the current bottlenecks, we could see daily output climb to 30‑35 million litres by mid‑2026," notes energy consultant Chidi Nwankwo of Lagos‑based Energy Insights.

What this means for everyday Nigerians

At the end of the day, the real impact lands on the fuel pump. A consistent 20‑million‑litre supply eases pressure on retail prices, reduces the frequency of station shortages, and cuts the need for costly imports.

Yet the mixed signals—bright headlines tempered by equipment glitches—remind consumers that the journey to full energy independence is still a work in progress.