Nigeria's reliance on foreign fuel spiked unexpectedly last month, with the country importing roughly 5.9 million litres of petrol per day in March 2026. This represents a staggering 96.6 percent jump from the 3.0 million litres imported daily in February, according to the latest data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA). The surge comes as the federal government quietly pivoted back to import licenses to hedge against geopolitical instability in the Middle East, effectively walking back a previous push to rely solely on domestic refining.
Here's the thing: for a while, it looked like Nigeria was finally breaking its dependence on imported fuel. The government had actually halted many import approvals, betting on the growing capacity of local plants. But reality hit hard in March. With tensions simmering in the Middle East, the risk of a supply shock became too great to ignore. To keep the pumps running, the government reopened the floodgates for foreign shipments.
A Mixed Bag of Consumption and Stocks
Interestingly, the spike in imports didn't happen because Nigerians were suddenly using more fuel. In fact, the opposite happened. National consumption of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) actually dipped to 47.3 million litres per day in March 2026, down from 56.9 million litres in February. You'd think that would mean more fuel in the tanks, but the numbers tell a different story.
Stock sufficiency—essentially the "safety net" of fuel available—dropped from 30.7 days in February to just 21.2 days in March. It's a worrying trend. Despite bringing in more fuel from abroad, the buffer is shrinking. This suggests that the domestic supply chain is still struggling to keep pace with the sheer volatility of the market.
The Dangote Factor and Local Output
The heavyweight in this scenario remains the Dangote Petroleum Refinery Petrochemicals (DPRP). In March 2026, the massive facility produced 48.2 million litres of petrol per day. However, not all of that stayed within Nigeria's borders. While total production was high, the amount supplied to the domestic market fell to 34.2 million litres per day, compared to 36.5 million in February.
When you add up the domestic production and the new imports, the total PMS supply reached 40.1 million litres per day. It's a slight increase from February's 39.5 million, but it highlights a critical gap: Nigeria's biggest refinery is running, yet the government still feels it needs to import millions of litres daily to feel secure.
Diesel Metrics Take a Dive
While petrol is the headline, the numbers for Automotive Gas Oil (diesel) are honestly quite grim. Almost every metric for diesel crashed in March. Daily supply plummeted to 10.3 million litres, a far cry from the 24.4 million litres supplied in February. Domestic supply followed suit, dropping to 3.9 million litres from 8.8 million.
Even the imports for diesel saw a decline, falling to 6.4 million litres per day. The Dangote refinery's contribution to the diesel market was particularly sharp, providing only 2.2 million litres per day in March—a massive drop from its previous output levels. To make matters worse, the smaller players aren't moving the needle much. Three modular refineries—Walter Smith, Edo Refinery, and Aradel—jointly supplied a modest average of 0.629 million litres of diesel per day.
Port Chaos and Policy Shifts
To plug the sudden supply gap, the NMDPRA didn't just open the door; they invited six specific companies to lead the charge. The regulator approved roughly 180,000 metric tonnes of petrol imports, split among Bono Energy, Pinnacle, AYM Shafa, Matrix, A.A. Rano, and NIPCO. Each company was tasked with importing about 30,000 metric tonnes.
This wasn't just paperwork. Real-world activity surged at the docks. During the late March fuel deliveries" Apapa and Tincan Island ports, five fuel vessels arrived between March 27 and March 29, unloading 95,000 metric tonnes of petrol and diesel. For those who frequent the Apapa area, the change was visible: truck activity, which had been eerie and quiet for weeks, suddenly roared back to life.
What's Next for Nigeria's Fuel Security?
The NMDPRA has set clear benchmarks for 2026, aiming for 50 million litres per day for petrol and 14 million for diesel. But the March data shows the road to these targets is bumpy. The reliance on imports suggests that domestic refining, while improving, isn't yet a bulletproof shield against global politics.
The twist is that the government is now playing a balancing act. They want the Dangote refinery to be the primary source, but they can't risk a total blackout if a conflict in the Middle East shuts down a shipping lane. Expect to see more "strategic" import licenses being handed out as a hedge, even as local production ramps up. It's a costly way to run a country, but in the eyes of the regulators, it's better than empty pumps.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Nigeria increase petrol imports if local refining is increasing?
The increase was primarily a precautionary measure. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East created supply uncertainties, leading the federal government to resume import approvals to prevent fuel shortages, despite the presence of the Dangote refinery.
Which companies were allowed to import fuel in March 2026?
The NMDPRA granted import licenses to six companies: Bono Energy, Pinnacle, AYM Shafa, Matrix, A.A. Rano, and NIPCO. Each was authorized to import approximately 30,000 metric tonnes of petrol to bridge the supply gap.
How did diesel supply perform compared to petrol?
Diesel performance was significantly worse. Total daily supply dropped from 24.4 million litres in February to just 10.3 million litres in March, with domestic supply and imports both seeing sharp declines.
What is the current state of fuel stock sufficiency?
Stock sufficiency for petrol declined from 30.7 days in February to 21.2 days in March 2026. This indicates a shrinking reserve of fuel, making the country more vulnerable to sudden supply disruptions.